Indian natural rubber price forecast–An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) approach
نویسندگان
چکیده
The objective of this study was to forecast the price natural rubber in India during April 2019 March 2020 by employing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). monthly pricing data for period from 2008 2018 used study. analysis carried out year 2018–19. RSS4 (Ribbed Smoked Sheets), latex (60% DRC (Dry Rubber Content)) and ISNR 20 (Indian Standard Natural Rubber) are different types Indian that competitive international market. prices these were taken modelling. AIC as a selection criterion best-fitted model. ARIMA(3,1,2) RSS 4, ARIMA (3,1,2) Latex 60% DRC, (4,1,3) ISNR20were most suited modelsto price.The evaluation metrics R2, Adjusted Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Percentage (MAPE) Root Square (RMSE). These employed validating forecasting can be better-suited tool policymakers decide on their investment cultivation.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['0019-5022', '2394-3319']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56093/ijas.v90i2.103067